Sports betting can be a fun and exciting way to add an extra level of excitement to your favorite games. But have you ever thought about the psychological factors at play when you place a bet? In this blog post, we'll explore the psychology of sports betting and how it can impact your decision-making and outcomes.

When it comes to sports betting, there are a few key psychological factors that can come into play. For example, people often overestimate their knowledge of a sport and the teams involved, leading them to make overconfident bets. This overconfidence can cause them to underestimate the risk of their bets and lead to potential losses.

Another psychological factor at play in sports betting is the concept of "anchoring." This refers to the tendency for people to rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive, even if it's not particularly relevant to the decision at hand. In the context of sports betting, this could mean basing your bet on a team's record from last season, rather than considering more current factors that could impact their performance.

Furthermore, the act of placing a bet can trigger a psychological phenomenon known as the "gambler's fallacy." This is the belief that, if a particular event hasn't happened in a while, it's more likely to happen soon. In the context of sports betting, this could mean believing that a team on a losing streak is due for a win, or that a coin is more likely to land on heads after several consecutive tosses of tails.

Another key aspect of sports betting psychology is the emotional rollercoaster that can come with wins and losses. It's natural to feel a rush of excitement when you win a bet, but it's important not to get carried away and start making rash decisions. Similarly, it can be easy to feel frustrated or discouraged after a loss, but it's important to maintain a level head and not let your emotions cloud your judgment. 

Impulse betting or betting while under the influence of alcohol or other substances can impair your judgment and increase the risk of making poor decisions. It's always best to bet with a clear and focused mind, and to never bet more than you can afford to lose.



Ultimately, the key to successful sports betting is to approach it with a clear understanding of the psychological factors at play, and to make informed and rational decisions based on the best available information. By keeping a level head and avoiding common psychological pitfalls, you can increase your chances of success and enjoy the thrill of sports betting responsibly.

Additionally, it's important to remember that sports betting is not a guaranteed way to make money. Despite the best efforts of even the most experienced bettors, there will always be an element of chance and uncertainty involved in sports betting. It's crucial to approach it with a long-term mindset and not to get too caught up in short-term wins or losses.

Another important aspect of sports betting psychology is the concept of "chasing losses." This refers to the tendency for some bettors to try to recoup their losses by placing bigger and riskier bets, rather than cutting their losses and taking a step back. This can be a dangerous mindset to fall into, as it can quickly lead to significant financial losses and potentially even gambling addiction.

To avoid the pitfalls of chasing losses, it's important to have a clear betting strategy and to stick to it, even when you're facing losses. This can mean setting a budget for your bets, limiting the amount you bet on any given game, and being willing to walk away when necessary. By approaching sports betting with a measured and disciplined mindset, you can avoid the potential dangers of chasing losses and keep your betting enjoyable and responsible.

In conclusion, the psychology of sports betting can have a significant impact on your decisions and outcomes. By understanding the potential pitfalls of overconfidence, anchoring, the gambler's fallacy, and chasing losses, you can make more informed and rational decisions, and potentially improve your chances of success. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, it's important to approach sports betting with a clear and disciplined mindset, and to always bet responsibly.


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In this blog post, we delve into the psychology of sports betting and how it can impact your decisions and outcomes.

Understanding the Psychology of Betting on Sports

_**Note:** This article was originally published all the way back in 2020 when Action Backers was just getting started. That said, the principles are still sound today._

Today I want to go over 10 practical tips that can help you win more money when betting on sports. If you are looking for a secret "system" or a lock of the year, this isn't the post for you.

Below you will find 10 actionable tips that you can start implementing today and see results tomorrow.

Let's get into it:

### 10. Track all of your bets

I don't care if you use the Action Backers bet tracker, a spread sheet, or a piece of paper, but you need to track your bets. You'll be amazed how much better you get when you see where you're profitable and where you're not.

### 9. Line Shopping

You need to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks. It's imperative that you're getting the best line. You can't just be playing at the same book just because you like the book, you need to find the best line if you're serious about making a profit!

It's just like going to the supermarket: you want to find the best price available, and you need to be able to capitalize on opportunities when the lines aren't as sharp at some books as they are at others. It's crucial!

Action Backers has lines from all of the most popular sportsbooks and our bet comparison tool will show you the top 5 best lines at any given time for all major sports.

### 8. Reduce risk when possible

For instance, instead of betting on baseball the runline, or on hockey the puck line which is minus one and a half runs or goals (-1.5), I like to take a minus one (-1).

This way I'm still getting typically a good value bet where it's plus money and it's going to pay me out a good chunk when it comes through, but by taking minus one instead of minus one and a half I allow for the bet to push so if the team only wins by one run or one goal I'm still pushing instead of losing.

> Pro Tip: _If your book doesn't offer a minus one, then all you need to do is bet the moneyline and the run/puckline. Whatever your profit on the moneyline would be, that's a second bet you make on the runline or the puckline and that way it equals out. It's the same thing as betting minus one so if, for example, the team wins 4-3, then instead of losing you're going to push._

### 7. Bankroll management

I've been guilty of this in the past; how often have you won money betting on sports only to turn around and play blackjack, roulette, whatever and next thing you know you’ve blown through 80% of your bankroll?

It sucks. You'll hate yourself for doing it. Don't let it happen to you! If you want to play in the casino, that's fine but have different money for that, don't use your sports betting bankroll.

### 5. Trust the numbers

You need to understand value, and sometimes you need to fall in love with an ugly duck. I've made a lot of money betting on hockey and other sports, and a lot of the time I'm betting on an underdog.

Underdogs that my model maybe only has winning 40% of the time, but the sportsbook only thinks they win 35% of the time. If the numbers are there then I'm going to make money in the long run and you need to be comfortable with understanding that! It's really imperative that you're betting the numbers and not the teams.

### 4. Don't be afraid to pass on a bet

If the numbers aren't right, or if the line moves in the wrong direction. If the spread changes and there's no value there, pass on it!

I can't tell you the number of times that, in my early days, I lost money because I was chasing a bet that I knew had no value but I wanted to be an action junkie.

Don't do it! You'll lose money in the long run and if you don't put the money in the middle you can't lose it, so do not be afraid to pass on a bet if the numbers don’t make sense.

### 3. Learn from those with experience

This is really important; spend some time watching [YouTube videos](https://www.youtube.com/actionbackers), listening to podcasts, interacting on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/actionbackers) and learning from people who have done this for a long time.

Be aware there are some scammy people out there and you need to use some common sense and have good judgment (_take their words with a grain of salt_), but really learn and study people who've been doing this for a long time.

Understand that they've been able to stay in the game for a certain reason and they have good knowledge so really try and soak up that knowledge from them. Also, when you gain more experience, don't be afraid to pass that along either!

### 2. Maximize value

So I know I said earlier that we want to be cautious and practice bankroll management, but if you have a defined edge and you know it's an edge (not a hunch) and you've proven it either through backtesting or over a given sample size then you need to maximize that edge.

It doesn't make any sense for you to be betting the same amount on a game you think you have a 10% edge in as a game you have a 2% edge. You need to be crushing that edge because the margins are so slim and the juice will get you if you don’t.

So once you find an edge, maximize it and squeeze it for all it's worth!

I like to use the Kelly criterion ([watch my video on it here](https://youtu.be/-APRRgdjYIM)) that's the safest way to have some control while managing your risk of ruin and maximizing your upside.

If you're just starting out, don't worry about that in the beginning. That's more as you go down the line and you've proven the system to yourself; whether it's building a model that works really well or if you're just a really great handicapper with a proven winning record over a large sample.

### 1. Don't blindly tail others

I can give you hockey picks, baseball picks, basketball picks, whatever, all day long and if you want to take them that's great, but you should always be taking others bets with some degree of skepticism.

Try and understand how they arrive at that conclusion, how they got there with their picks. That doesn't mean you necessarily have to get into forecasting and handicapping yourself if you don't want to, or if you're not comfortable but don't just see someone post something on Instagram or Twitter or YouTube and just take it and tail blindly.

Do your homework and make sure that it makes sense to you, or at least that the person you're getting this information from has solid reasoning behind why they're making these picks.

That's going to save you a lot of money and by saving you a lot of money that's going to help you win more money in the long run as well!

Remember, as Ray Liotta said in the movie Blow:

> Sometimes you're flush, sometimes you're bust and when you're up it's never as good as it seems when you're down you think you'll never be up again but life goes on.

It's not about any, one bet; good bets lose bad and bets win. It's about sticking to a process. It's just like a batting average in baseball; if you know you have a good approach at the plate, you get in there and you keep taking your swings.

Things will come around and eventually, you're going to connect consistently!

These were 10 Tips to Win More Money Betting on Sports. Let me know on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/actionbackers) if you found these tips helpful!

Please Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @ActionBackers.

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Ten practical, and often overlooked tips to help you achieve the goal of being a winning sports bettor.

Ten tips to win more money betting on sports

_**Note:** This article was originally published all the way back in 2018 when Action Backers was just a blog. That said, the principles are still sound today._

The only way to make money betting on sports, in the long run, is by placing bets that have a positive Expected Value (+EV). You will also need to understand Implied Probabilities and betting Margins.  
  
Unfortunately, even if you make all the right decisions over an entire season of betting, that doesn't ensure you'll come out ahead.  
  
You can make great picks and still lose because sports betting is heavily influenced by luck (we’re talking about humans here), but mostly in the short term.  
  
If you understand and deploy the concept of expected value (EV), though, you'll see you can control your profits in the long run.

### So, what is EV? What is value betting?

Every decision you make when placing a bet can be classified as either Plus (+) EV or Negative (-) EV.

Simply put:

**+EV is a good choice**: one that will make you money in the long term.

**(-)EV is a bad choice:** one that will lose you money in the long run.

> _"In probability theory the expected value of a random variable is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by the outcome value (or payoff).  
> "Thus, it represents the average amount one 'expects' as the outcome of the random trial when identical odds are repeated many times."_
> 
> [Expected Value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) as explained by Wikipedia

In plain English: **_Expected value is the amount of money you would win or lose, on average, on your bet._**

#### The math of expected value

If you and a friend were to bet on the outcome of a coin flip, and agree that you would be paid $5 for every time it came heads and you would pay them $5 every time it came tails, you would win half the time and they would win the other half of the time.

That would make the bet a neutral EV bet.

Let's say, though, that your opponent decided:

-   They would pay you $10 for every heads
-   You would still only pay them $5 for every tails

The wager now becomes a **+EV bet**.

You'll still win 50% of all of the flips over the long term. But when you win you'll be paid double what you pay them when you lose.

Your expected value on every flip is now **$2.50**.

##### _What the math says:_

One outcome of the flip is it lands tails (-$5), the other outcome is heads (+$10).

So 50% of the time you'll win $10 and the other 50% of the time you'll lose $5.

To calculate EV, use the following formula:

  
**(Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing)**

The above example looks like this:

(Amount won: $10 * Probability: 50%) - (Amount lost: $5 * Probability: 50%)

($10*0.5) - ($5*0.5)  
($5) - ($2.50)  
**EV = + $2.50**

#### What this means

In sports betting, this means you **only want to make bets that show a positive expectation** and avoid ones with a negative expectation. This is where your money comes from - making bets that only show a positive expectation.

Okay great, this all makes sense… but you’re probably wondering how do I apply this to sports betting when the odds aren’t 50/50?  
  
Unlike a coin toss, betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you accurately predict an outcome compared to the bookmaker, you’re likely to make a profit.  
  
If you calculate your own probability for an outcome that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you can identify a positive EV.

### What is implied probability?

As per [smarkets.com](https://smarkets.com):  
“_Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It takes into account the bookmaker margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring.”_  
  
This is a fundamental part of finding value in your bets and is imperative to winning in the long run.

**To calculate Implied probabilities**, use the following formulas (or just use our betting tools in-app): There are two instances of American odds (positive and negative) which require separate calculations.

**Converting negative American odds**

The equation to convert negative American odds is:

negative American odds / (negative American odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability

**Converting positive American odds**

The equation to convert positive American odds is:

100 / (positive American odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability

#### Practical application

Now you understand how to calculate the implied probability behind the odds, you can identify potential value in a betting market. If the bookmaker's implied probability is less than your own assessed probability, that outcome represents a value betting opportunity.  
  
Let’s look at a real-life example from 2018 when this post was first published. For simplicity's sake, we will use an NHL Moneyline Bet, using [MoneyPuck.com](http://moneypuck.com/) as the basis of our model (***_this is for example purposes, we always recommend building your own model!_**)  
  
The New York Islanders are on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights. On the face, you might think that Vegas is a “lock” to win this game. But we want to be betting numbers, not teams. So let’s dig into some numbers.  
  
Pinnacle has the following line available:  
  
Islanders ML (+171)  
Vegas ML (-190)  
  
Vegas is an overwhelming favourite and our Implied Probabilities tell us the following:  
  
Islanders Chance of winning: 36.9%  
Vegas Chance of winning: 65.52%  
  
(**_wait_ _a second, doesn’t that add up to 102.42%? Yes, it does. Congrats! You just learned how to calculate the sportsbooks margin; in this case 2.42%. This is their “take” no matter which side wins or loses the game_**)  
  
But here’s where we find our value. Let's say that we think the Islanders (using our model, or in this case MoneyPuck) **_actually_** have a **43.5%** chance of winning and that Vegas only has a **56.5%** chance of winning.  
  
This means that we have an implied edge of **6.6%**! We should bet on the Islanders in this spot. In fact, the Expected Value of making this bet based on a $100 wager is + **$17.89**!

![NHL betting example](https://res.cloudinary.com/actionbackers/image/upload/v1667399535/Screen-Shot-2018-12-20-at-12.33.19-PM_rp2iih.png "NHL betting example")
_Betting Vegas in this spot would have an Expected Value of - $26.15_

#### Sportsbet like poker a poker player.

It’s important to note that this particular bet might not win, but your strategy should be for betting for the long run. Think of it like poker. If you know you are making the correct play, in the long run you will win money. Short term variance is a fact of gambling, but you can expect to win long term when making only +EV bets.

### Tips & tricks for value betting

It’s important to understand that your edge will always be perceived so take it with a grain of salt and always practice good bankroll management. We take the approach that we want to have _at least_ a perceived edge of 4% or greater. Treat this as your noise floor. Anything less than 4% and you’re still basically flipping a coin.  
  
Not sure how to build a model (_**update: we can help! Join Action Backers today and learn how to build your first model.**_)? That’s okay! Not everybody has the time or knowledge to build a model of their own. You can still apply value betting in an easy, and beatable way. The concept is simple:

#### Use sharp books to beat square books.

"Sharp" books, such as Pinnacle offer the highest limits and lowest margins for a reason- their lines are sharp and they are rarely exposed. If you take the line that Pinnacle is offering and shop it around at some square books (books who favour public bettors- typically those who predominantly bet favourites and overs) you can often apply a value strategy and beat the book. The old adage: “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” rings true here, where you’re essentially joining the sharp book to beat the square book. 

It’s worth noting that you **_must_** practice good bankroll management if you want to succeed long-term. Especially if you are playing a lot of underdogs, you need to be able to withstand the short-term variance. Depending on your bankroll, as a general starting point, we recommend playing _no more_ than 3.5% of your roll on any one game, and this should be closer to 1-2% as your bankroll increases.

Have questions? Let us know on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/actionbackers) or become a member and join our discord community!

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Value betting is about the fundamentals. Finding postive expectations and attacking edge for consistent profits.

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